Scientists Sound Alarm: Only 5 Years to Safeguard 1.5C Climate Limit

2023-10-31 14:22:54

Table
  1. Scientists Warn: 5 Years Left To Avoid 1.5C Climate Limit
    1. Accelerated Warming and Removal of Soot and Sulphates
    2. Remaining Carbon Budget
    3. The Fight for the 1.5 Degree Limit

Scientists Warn: 5 Years Left To Avoid 1.5C Climate Limit

Scientists have issued a warning that we have a limited time of less than six years to prevent global temperatures from exceeding the 1.5C degree limit. This limit was established by the 2015 Paris Agreement, in which countries around the world agreed to reduce carbon emissions to prevent surpassing the 1.5C increase compared to pre-industrial temperatures. Passing this threshold would have irreversible and detrimental effects on our climate.

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New estimates published in the journal Nature Climate Change indicate that we are on track to exceed this limit within six years, starting from January. Therefore, we now have around five years to take action before reaching 2029.

The reason for this accelerated timeline is our slow progress in reducing carbon emissions. As a result, carbon continues to accumulate in the atmosphere, leading to extreme weather events and significant changes to our planet.

Accelerated Warming and Removal of Soot and Sulphates

Surprisingly, these new estimates suggest that cleaning up pollutants like soot and sulphates, which contribute to air pollution, has actually worsened the situation. These particles act as coolants, masking the warming effect of burning fossil fuels and exacerbating climate change.

Remaining Carbon Budget

The carbon budget, representing the amount of carbon that can be emitted without exceeding the 1.5C limit, is currently around 250 billion metric tons. Considering our annual emissions exceed 40 billion metric tons, this leaves us with minimal flexibility. Previously, the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projected a budget of 500 billion metric tons until 2032.

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Although time is running out to achieve the 1.5C limit, even if we surpass it, every effort to reduce emissions still matters. World leaders will convene next month in Dubai for COP28 to discuss strategies for preventing this breach and mitigating the effects of climate change.

The Fight for the 1.5 Degree Limit

Joeri Rogelj, a climate scientist at Imperial College London, emphasized that the best opportunities to meet the 1.5C limit are already lost. However, Robin Lamboll, another climate scientist from Imperial College London, stated that fighting for the limit is not about winning or losing, but rather about the collective effort to minimize the effects of climate change.

With the average global temperature already 1.14C hotter than in the 19th century and 2022 being 1.26C hotter, weather events and other factors could further impact the 1.5C threshold.

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Ultimately, urgent action is needed to address climate change in order to protect our planet and future generations.

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