Rishi Sunak's Success Rate in By-Elections: Exploring the Numbers

2023-10-20 12:32:13

A Look At Rishi Sunak's Success Rate In By-Elections

A Statistical Analysis of Rishi Sunak's Impact on Conservative Party's Performance in By-Elections

Rishi Sunak, the current Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, assumed office a year ago. However, it is pertinent to assess the extent of his influence on the Conservative Party's success in by-elections.

Since taking over the leadership from Liz Truss, Sunak has endeavored to establish his unique imprint on the party's policies and direction. He outlined his five priorities for the year, effectively distancing himself from his predecessors and making tough "long-term" decisions.

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Yet, considering the Conservative Party's underperformance in local elections, it seems that the anticipated general election in 2024 may not be as promising for them as they had hoped.

Out of the nine by-elections that presented opportunities to either increase their majority or retain stronghold seats, the Tories have only managed to secure one additional Tory MP.

1. December 2022 – City of Chester

In the first by-election after Johnson's departure, Chris Matheson, the former Labour Party MP, resigned following serious allegations of sexual misconduct. Despite this setback for Sunak, the Labour Party was able to hold onto the seat, with their candidate Samantha Dixon securing a significant majority with 10,974 votes (60.8%).

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2. December 2022 – Stretford and Urmston

Kate Green, the Labour MP for Stretford and Urmston, resigned to take up a position as the deputy mayor of Greater Manchester, triggering another by-election. Labour celebrated their second consecutive victory, with their candidate securing 69.65% of all votes (12,828). The Conservatives, however, saw a decrease in their share of the vote by 12%.

3. February 2023 – West Lancashire

In the wake of Sunak unveiling his five priorities for the year, another by-election presented a challenge for the Conservatives. Rosie Cooper, the incumbent Labour MP, stepped down after being appointed as the chair of the Mersey Care NHS Foundation Trust. Labour maintained the seat with a convincing victory (14,068 votes), while the Tory candidate secured only 5,742 votes.

4. July 2023 – Uxbridge and South Ruislip

In a closely contested election, Steve Tuckwell, Sunak's candidate, narrowly secured a victory in Boris Johnson's former seat. Tuckwell's win came in the aftermath of Johnson's resignation following his repeated lies to Parliament over partygate. Although this victory provided a significant boost for Sunak, it is worth noting that the Conservatives had experienced a decline in opinion polls throughout his tenure.

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5. July 2023 – Selby and Ainsty

The Conservatives faced disappointment in Selby and Ainsty, a previously considered safe constituency for the party. Nigel Adams, the Tory MP who had held the seat with a substantial majority in the 2019 election, resigned earlier in the year. Labour's candidate Keir Mather emerged victorious, overturning the Tories' grip on the constituency with a comfortable margin of 4,161 votes.

6. July 2023 – Somerton and Frome

Following the resignation of former Tory MP David Warburton amid allegations of sexual misconduct and drug use, the Conservatives lost their significant majority of 19,213 in this constituency. The Liberal Democrats' candidate, Sarah Dyke, secured a resounding victory (21,187 votes) over the Tory hopeful.

7. October 2023 – Rutherglen and Hamilton West

Margaret Ferrier, the sitting MP, faced dismissal by her constituents due to her criminal conviction for violating lockdown rules during the pandemic. Previously an independent representative since her party's expulsion in 2020, Ferrier's loss benefited Labour's Michael Shanks as he defeated the SNP's candidate by a margin of 9,446 votes. This was a significant achievement considering that the SNP has been the largest party in Scotland for over a decade.

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8. October 2023 – Mid Bedfordshire

In Mid Bedfordshire, Nadine Dorries, the former culture secretary and close ally of Johnson, resigned after failing to receive the promised peerage. Labour's Alistair Strathern emerged as the first-ever Labour MP in the constituency, overturning Dorries' substantial majority of 24,664 with a margin of 13,872 votes. The swing from the Tories to Labour in this by-election stood at 20.5%.

9. October 2023 – Tamworth

Chris Pincher, the ex-Tory MP, tendered his resignation amid allegations of sexual misconduct. In the subsequent by-election, Sarah Edward of the Labour Party triumphed with 11,719 votes, defeating the Conservative candidate, Andrew Cooper, who secured only 10,403 votes. This result was particularly significant as Tamworth had long been considered a safe Conservative seat.

Former Conservative chancellor George Osborne expressed concern over these losses, indicating potential upheaval for the party. Labour's gains in these by-elections have undoubtedly presented challenges for Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives.

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