The Shift in Tech War: China's Export Ban on Galium and Germanium
In a surprising move, China has imposed an export ban on two crucial raw materials - gallium nitride (GaN) and germanium dioxide (GeO2). These materials play a vital role in the chip industry, making this ban a significant development in the ongoing tech war between China and the US and EU. Effective from August 1st, the export ban is seen as a tit-for-tat response to Western sanctions against China.

The ban comes shortly after the Dutch government restricted the export of high-precision lithographic machines produced by ASML to Chinese companies. ASML is the sole producer of these machines, which are essential for chip-making. With China controlling a significant portion of the world's production of rare metals, this move holds immense significance in the ongoing tech war.
China's dominance in the rare metals market is evident, with the country covering 94% of gallium and 83% of germanium world supply, according to an EU study. The US alone imported gallium worth $225M in 2022. While some analysts believe that the West can find alternative sources for these metals, the ban is expected to slow down the Western chip industry as it seeks to diversify its supplies.

China's objective with the export ban is to buy time for its own chip production to catch up with industry leaders such as TSMC and Samsung. These two companies currently hold the expertise in manufacturing cutting-edge chips, which play a crucial role in various industries like smartphones, computers, and automobiles.

Even if Western countries manage to ramp up their own production of these materials, the ban is expected to impact prices. The tech war's ultimate outcome remains uncertain, but it is clear that this move challenges the principles of free trade and may lead to market disruptions, supply chain issues, and higher prices for end products.
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