Reports Predict Danger: Satellite Debris Poses Threat to People and Aircraft
A recent report released by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) warns that falling satellites could potentially cause harm or even death to individuals every two years. The report, commissioned by the FAA, states that if SpaceX continues with its satellite launch plans, approximately 28,000 pieces of satellite debris will enter the Earth's atmosphere annually by 2035. The report emphasizes that there is a 0.6 probability each year that the satellite debris will not completely burn up during reentry, posing a risk of injury or death to people on the ground. This equates to an occurrence once every two years.
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The FAA report also highlights the increased risk of falling debris due to the growing number of launches required to deploy and maintain large Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite constellations.
The Global Risk of Falling Debris
The FAA report raises concerns about the potential dangers posed by falling satellite debris. As more companies, like SpaceX, continue launching satellites into space, the risk of collisions in space and on the ground increases. The report, specifically commissioned to assess the risks associated with falling space debris, emphasizes the need for greater regulation to mitigate these dangers.
Is your Wi-Fi speed being murdered? The common mistake all BT broadband users must check todayThe report reveals that the world currently lacks comprehensive solutions to address issues related to space debris and the risks associated with new satellites. SpaceX, for instance, has plans to launch a considerable number of satellites, which necessitated the need for this report. Although the report acknowledges that SpaceX accounts for over 85% of the risk faced by individuals on the ground, it doesn't consider the satellite networks planned by other countries.
Elon Musk's SpaceX has disputed the report's analysis, claiming it is based on flawed assumptions about the danger to their satellites. In a letter to the FAA, David Goldstein, SpaceX's chief engineer, stated that the likelihood of their satellites burning up upon reentry is higher than what the report assumes.
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Risks and Impact of Falling Satellites
The FAA report underlines the increasing risks associated with falling satellite debris. It predicts that U.S.-licensed constellations in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) could pose a danger, resulting in injury or death every two years. By 2035, the report estimates that approximately 28,000 hazardous fragments will survive reentry each year. This raises the concern that individuals on the ground may be injured or killed by debris that survives the reentry process of these constellations. Consequently, it suggests that one person on the planet could be affected by falling debris every two years.
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The FAA report identifies the rise in launches required to deploy and sustain large Low Earth Orbit (LEO) constellations as a primary factor contributing to the risk of falling debris. Commercial rockets used for launching these constellations often leave their upper stage in orbit. The upper stage typically has a greater mass than individual satellites, making it more likely to survive reentry and pose a risk to people. The report also highlights the potential impact of SpaceX's Starlink constellation, which, if debris from its satellites survives reentry, could contribute significantly to the problem. It predicts a casualty expectation of 0.6 per year by 2035 if the expected growth of the Starlink constellation occurs.
Potential Solutions to Mitigate Risks
The FAA report suggests several potential solutions to mitigate the risks associated with falling satellites. One solution is to design satellites and launch vehicles that minimize the generation of debris during reentry. Additionally, it advocates for the design of satellites and launch vehicles that ensure complete burn-up upon reentry into the Earth's atmosphere. The report also calls for satellite operators to develop and implement end-of-life disposal plans that minimize the risk of debris surviving reentry. Furthermore, it recommends collaboration between satellite operators and the FAA to establish standards for the design and operation of satellites and launch vehicles, aimed at minimizing the risk of debris surviving reentry.
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Final considerations
The FAA report serves as a wake-up call regarding the risks associated with falling satellites if the current rate of launches continues. It emphasizes the potential danger and highlights the need for proactive measures. With one person on the planet expected to be at risk of injury or death from falling satellite debris every two years, it is crucial to address these risks seriously. The report suggests that by designing satellites and launch vehicles with minimal debris generation, ensuring complete burn-up during reentry, and implementing effective end-of-life disposal plans, these risks can be mitigated. Cooperation between satellite operators and regulatory agencies, such as the FAA, is also essential to establish standards that minimize the risk of debris surviving reentry. By taking these steps, we can safeguard lives and preserve the integrity of orbit and space activities.
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